Category: Point of View

Mobile services, or Cellular if you prefer, still seem very new, very vibrant, very today. The 1980s – when many of the first generation of commercial mobile networks were being launched – is still in our living memories. Well for most of us it is anyway. To say we have come a long way in a short space of time is an understatement. No industry, no product, no service, no appliance has seen growth and adoption rates to get anywhere near matching that of mobile.

Today’s key statistics speak for themselves: over 3.5 billion unique mobile customers and a one trillion dollar industry. Not bad for starters and for most industry insiders we are still at the beginning, although perhaps the end of the beginning. A few years back Ericsson told us that they believed there would be 50 billion connections by 2020, which is a mind boggling number! If we buy into this vision of IoT then we are truly still in our mobile infancy.

Mobile, along with the Web and Internet has changed the telecommunication landscape beyond recognition in the last 30 years. Indeed, between the two, they have revolutionised whole industry sectors and disrupted many more. At both a business and a personal level, so much of what we do today is related to our ability to be always connected and to be connected to the whole world.

So maybe this is a good time for some reflection. Certainly the Science Museum in London think it is and have opened a stunning new exhibition called “Information Age: Six Networks That Changed Our World“. Naturally Cellular/Mobile and the Internet/Web figure prominently in this exhibition (for the curious, the other four being The Cable, The Telephone Exchange, Broadcast and The Constellation).

I was honoured and privileged to be asked by the Science Museum to help them put together the story of early mobile in the UK. Now I will be the first to admit that my part in the creation of mobile was very small and very many others contributed so much more than I, but having lived through this period I was at least on hand to report first hand the events and the background to how cellular got a toe hold and then rapidly established itself as a major competitor to the wireline services of the day. My job, in these early days, was with one of the two licensed operators, Cellnet, to find suitable locations for radio base stations and then build them and install and commission the first generation of equipment. These were analogue TACS (Total Access Communication System) base stations and used – hard to believe today – cavity resonators which needed a set of spanners to tune for each single channel!

We’ve come a long way for sure. Today’s LTE equipment  – which is many more times the capacity of these early base stations – would fit in a lap top. It’s also fascinating to see some of the mobile phones and devices we have used in the last 30 years. I remember well those that laughed at our original 10 year plan which ended with one million customers and those that said the technology will never work properly or scale to levels needed for a mass communication system. It’s a good job that there were reformers, trend setters and go-getters taking the view that we were on the brink of something new, something big and a real game changers. The early fight for network coverage and for customers is explained in the exhibition and the red corner is well represented as well.

The period under review in the exhibition takes us through the creation of GSM, surely the most influential piece of standardisation work ever completed. GSM, from its early European foundations became the dominant global mobile communication system and its huge economy of scale formed the virtuous circle of lower (equipment and device) costs and ever higher customer demand. The mobile world never looked back and when umts – the third generation or 3G arrived – a truly global standard had been established. The rest is history, and being history it is appropriate that the Science Museum celebrate Mobile as one of the six networks that changed our lives.

I was invited to the preview today ahead of the official opening by Her Majesty the Queen next week. It’s a fascinating and brilliantly put together exhibition. It’s easy to find oneself having spent the whole day there without realising it.

At Azenby, all my colleagues have been involved in this historic voyage in one way or another. We pride ourselves in saying we have over 300 years’ experience and have ‘been there- done that’ and know mobile inside out. Looking around this exhibition though made me realise there is a lot more to Azenby than just that. We can look back with some pride and say ‘yes, we are amongst the pioneers of mobile’. And today, we still help bring about change, drive through transformation and help the mobile industry as it continues to explore new frontiers.

Network Sharing is not right for everybody. However, done for the right reasons, with the right partner and in the right way, it can be a game-changer.

Some people think that Network Sharing is a relatively recent development. When you think about it, operators have been sharing networks since mid-90s; since the first MVNO was launched, in fact. Customers knew their providers as brands, not as network operators. So, sharing one’s network with another brand is actually not that radical.

Obviously, here, we are not talking about a MVNO set-up based on a wholesale access agreement. Instead, we are dealing with joint infrastructure development and possibly with joint ownership. The scope of the shared infrastructure, associated services and the technical solution employed can vary quite diversely, from simple site sharing to full active sharing, indeed even spectrum sharing where the regulator consents. Talking of whom, we have observed over the last decade how the regulatory view, at least in more mature markets, has changed on the subject. In the early days of our industry, infrastructure competition was common philosophy with all regulators and an inescapable part of one’s spectrum licences. That’s changing nowadays evidenced by the increasing trend in Network Sharing.

There are lots of good reasons for considering Network Sharing including

• Improving network coverage footprint and the quality of service
• Catching up with and leapfrogging the competition in network coverage
• Getting ahead of competition by sharing investment in latest technology
• Reducing opex and improving future cost base
• Reducing or avoiding capex, especially for roll-out
• Generating free cash flow to reinvest or return to shareholders

Getting it right delivers significant cost and competitive market-facing benefits; the prize is BIG! The benefits of Network Sharing are clearly very attractive. However, putting one in place can be a bumpy journey. So, before you embark upon it, make sure that your rationale and goals are clear. Here are some implications that need consideration:

• Network Sharing requires cooperation with a competitor – this is not a natural thing to do; principally, as you are about to lose market differentiation on network coverage with your sharing partner. Or even worse, you may be strengthening the position of a competitor.
• You are giving up a degree of control over your network strategy – you are about to share the technology roadmap and future evolution of your network to a certain extent, including choice of vendors and timing of technology changes.
• The legal vehicle for implementation and ongoing governance is equally important as the choice of technical sharing solution. Long-term commitment requires both Shareholders’ buy-in. One should not enter into Network Sharing for short-term convenience. It needs underpinning with goal alignment between the sharing partners and with funding commitments backed up by consequences of default.

In conclusion, there is sound rationale for Network Sharing and its adoption is on the rise globally, as:

• Cost pressures on MNOs continue to increase against a backdrop of flat-lining revenues.
• The Regulatory framework continues to evolve positively enabling Network Sharing partnerships to flourish.
• Infrastructure sharing does not reduce retail competition – both operators can keep strong brands and their own retail strategy, pricing and distribution. It is a common misconception that Network Sharing reduces the ability to differentiate at the retail level.
• There has been proven sharing successes in other industries such as oil, electricity & gas. Sharing infrastructure and investment with retail competition isn’t that new or radical. It’s only new to us in Telecoms!

I would encourage MNOs to evaluate their options sooner, especially if they are not market leaders, and not wait until they are forced to do so. There is a first-mover advantage.

Of course, Azenby would be delighted to help you assess if Network Sharing is right for you and/or help you implement it the right way.

On 21st May 2014 I went to the “Light Reading Mobile Network Security Conference“.  It was an interesting session – and unusual in that covered many of the technical challenges of security of LTE.

My particular talk was held in the graveyard slot after lunch, and I tried to skim through the evolution from GSM to LTE. Trying to be light on a very technical issue was difficult! I was asked to comment on the three things to sell IPSec to an operator, and as well as mentioning some technical ones, I also mentioned the difficulty in justifying the risks in terms of the potential cost … try explaining that in Layman’s terms to a CFO.

Some of the issues discussed were stimulating to further thoughts:

• Small Cells were still a challenge for security: The realization of a real small cell clearly diverged from the suggested 3GPP standards. We will probably see more emphasis on security as more they become more exposed to hackers – but since it has already happened when will that be?

• Network Function Virtualization (NFV) featured many of the talks. We also had a presentation from an ETSI Industry Group on this topic. Is this hype or reality? There was a long debate and I felt it was inconclusive on the business case. We’ll see if it matures enough.

• Node balancing and DNS security, which had caused quite a few security issues in the past (and network outages around the world!). Small Cells will just increase the challenge of handling this. One member of the audience even dared to suggest that if you have to allow all this flexibility on loading, why not run your own network?

• The physical security of the LTE infrastructure was addressed by some of the presenters and questions raised. This will clearly be of great importance, as in LTE a lot more of the intelligence is with the eNode(B). There is also the difficulty in managing a mixed network from different vendors, which produce horrendous security and certificate management challenges. This is even true where operators share infrastructures!

If you want to talk about these issues further – practical technical and commercial help is on hand – so do get in touch!

We are pleased to announce that our Chairman Emin Gürdenli has been appointed as an independent member of BT’s Equality of Access Board (EAB). Emin has commented “I am delighted to be joining the EAB and I look forward to contributing to its success in helping BT maintain compliance with its Undertakings to Ofcom”

The EAB was created in November 2005, as a result of the Undertakings given by BT to Ofcom in September that year. It monitors, reports and advises on BT’s compliance with the Undertakings. In particular, it oversees the provision of certain products on an equivalent basis and the performance of Openreach against the Undertakings.

The EAB has been widely recognised as performing a central role in the UK regulatory regime created in 2005, in what is now one of the most competitive telecommunications markets in the world.

“The appointment of a new member reiterates BT’s continuing commitment to the Undertakings. Emin Gürdenli brings a wealth of experience of the telecommunications industry to the EAB, joining Edward Astle and Stephanie Liston as independent members of the board. I am delighted that he will be adding to the knowledge, ability and experience of the board. ” Phil Hodkinson, chairman of the EAB 

Further details of the announcement can be seen at http://www.btplc.com/thegroup/ourcompany/theboard/boardcommittees/index.htm

Being just one of the 80,000 visitors attending MWC this year reminds me just how much our industry continues to grow. Virginia Rometty (CEO, IBM) said this is an eco-system show not a mobile trade show. She is right; it has been heading this way for a few years now but this year it seemed to have finally made it.

When Ford Motors turn up and launch the all new EcoSport the week before the Geneva Motor Show, you know something is changing in the way the other industries now look at mobile. Stephen T. Odell, President of Europe, Middle East and Africa, Ford Motor Company said this is a technology show and cars are a connected technology so we chose to launch the car at MWC.

Of course there were some notable absentees from the gathering although Nokia did return. Google were absent and Apple continue to refrain from engaging. So, apart from those who can’t find their way out of Silicon Valley, there were 1750 exhibitors. Both the number of attendees and the number of exhibitors were new records for the show. MWC and CES are now the two primary industry tech shows. One could argue the only two that matter these days.

Key Note speakers do draw crowds, journalists and analysts – which is important for the show. Not surprisingly, Mark Zuckerberg had a pop star like following and crowds were queuing hours before the doors opened. It was a full house even with him being screened all around the congress village and – I am told – with 35,000 more watching live on the internet. For me he was disappointing, unable to tell us anything interesting and came across as being nervous, tense and hesitant – perhaps he is not so experienced at public speaking. In contrast, the following day Virginia Rometty really did show him how it’s done. A natural, engaging, enthusiastic speaker, with passion and full of belief. She told us about her game plan and her vision and although this didn’t surprise us, she at least was entertaining and passionate about it.

It has been my privilege to be asked to act as Honorary Chair of the Judging Panel for the GSMA Global Mobile Awards for a few years now. We had 180 Judges this year.
http://www.mobileworldlive.com/interview-bill-best-awards-chairman
With nearly 700 entrants this year over 38 categories, these are undoubtedly the industry’s premier award programme. One of the side benefits of being the Chair, apart from meeting so many wonderful judges, is also to meet the star guest compare – this year James Colden (Smithy to Gavin and Stacey fans). It never fails to amaze me how many new jokes about using a mobile phone these guys can come up with.

This was also the last GSMA gathering with our dear colleague and old friend, Charles Brookson attending as Chair of the Security group. Charles is the last link between the origins of GSM and today so it truly is the passing of an era. This was marked with a ceremony and reported on in show daily. A privilege for Anne Bouverot!

What was big at the show?

MWC had no titled theme this year although the strapline was ‘Creating What’s Next’. It was up to us to go figure what we think is coming next but I’m sure we all came away with a different opinion on this. Unsurprisingly, there was a lot of noise about Virtualisation, Big Data and the Internet of Things – phrases that can be made to mean just about anything you want them to! Of course Apps are everywhere and not just Applications but Apparatus as well. Despite the concentration of operating software the device world is still looking to have proprietary hardware whether they be wearables, consoles, big screens small screens or Xlets. Maybe we are entering the Apps2.0 era!

On the low profile side of things I would definitely have to put RCS. Is it forgotten before it even arrives? The desire to make this the ubiquitous rich messaging platform for all the MNO customers to use world-wide seems to be dissipating. Have the MNOs thrown in the towel? I think vendors may think that. Two years ago there were plenty of vendors talking RCS, this year hardly any. Vendors quickly work out what MNOs are asking about and the almost disappearance of RCS from the stands tells me the world is moving on without RCS.

Device launches returned to MWC this year. The GSMA have had an award for the last few years for the best new device seen at show and to be honest this has been a bit of a damp squib. But this year there was some hot competition. Leading the way, in terms of prestige anyway, was Samsung who launched the new Galaxy 5. We also saw the LG G Pro 2, Sony Xperia Z2 tablet, Samsung Gear Fit, HP Slate7 Voicetab and the Huawei MediaPad X1 unveiled. The winner by the way was the Samsung Gear Fit.

I think Virginia Rometty had it right when she said this an eco-system show and mobile is now touching more and more industries in more and more different ways. The Connected City shows one bit of this but it’s only when one walks round the whole show that you realise this is now the Mobile Economy Show. And it also is a truly global show. So the mobile economy is global and getting bigger all the time. That has to be good news for all us working in it doesn’t it?

Is there such a thing as a totally new idea, or is everything a “better” way of doing what you already do?

When you strip it back to basics, technology gives us a faster, better quality, more fun way of doing something that we already do. Take flying for example, people always travelled and taking a plane enables them to their destination faster.

I was musing on this hypothesis during a Mobile Data Association / ICT KTN event and a number of salient points came up:

A recent survey by Deloitte asked UK users “What is the killer app for 4G?” They all said that it would improve what they already do – with watching video ranking as the obvious highest answer.

We should not be technology-led, but user-led – right? The user need must come before the technology solution… I suggest not always – if you put the technology out there, without being too prescriptive, people will show you what they use it for. That is being user-led too.

SMS – perfect case in point; Twitter, created as an internal tool is now used for all sorts of things: a better way for celebs to create relationships with their fans; a faster and personalised news channel; a fast and cheap way to market an event … the list goes on.

And now, the buzz is wearable technology. Technologists will tell you that microprocessors have been embedded in rings for decades. So they cry – “Google glass – what are the user cases?” Why do I want to see augmented reality as I am walking down the road? How will it make my life better?

And what about smart watches? As one of the speakers from Quocirca pointed out, it can’t just be a smaller screen version of what I already have… so let’s think about the practicalities of screen size – and of being able to get information by looking at your wrist rather than getting your phone out. So it smacks of convenience and I for one, do not use my phone on the street any more, since my brand new Samsung was taken out of my hand. So will it be good for notifications? Reminders? Delays on your train / next train leaving in 5 mins? A new Email from someone important? Is a watch face big enough to see photographs? Weather warnings – expect a downpour in 5 minutes, special offers from retail you are walking past, oh and games of course…well we had those in the 1980s….

Martin Garner of CCS Insight gave us a great statement based on their Mobile Internet User Report research they carried out “People grow in to their smartphones” – so they have shown that before buying a smartphone people don’t have a full idea of what they’ll do with it– within the first 18 months, their usage grows as they discover more they can do with it. Exactly my point.

Most of us now have an “orgy” of devices (one of the speaker’s terms, not mine!) and we were given some great insight around how people are using multiple devices. Two terms were offered to describe user behaviour on multiple devices:
1. “Multi-tasking” – we are doing different things on different devices at the same time.
2. “Media-meshing” – where there is real time link between the different things that you are doing – they are related activities.

With multiple connected devices, behaviour is changing and expectations are rising; in the morning, the mobile phone is predominant as people travel to work; during the day it is the laptop and at evening, the tablet.

So here it is – technology advances – we have multiple devices and our behaviour is changing – so what opportunities are created by this? People are showing us what they are doing with new technology…so we backtrack and now can work out ways to proliferate …

Another great concept was introduced, this time by CSS Insight: “Appification” early indications that users are now expecting an App to be supplied with a purchase. It is now assumed that most people have a smartphone and digital natives that have grown up with a smartphone are now moving in to senior jobs – so their first thought will be to create an app for a loyalty scheme, expenses systems and so on – it is a natural way for them to think. So we are hitting a tipping point? Will we have an App for everything? There was also the suggestion that users are starting to expect when they buy things that they come with an app.

So here’s where I end up: People are showing us how they are using technology. We have to put it out there in order to see what people will do with it. The trick is in getting close enough to users to identify changes in behaviour that give us, as innovators, the clues on what we should do next.

Apps World London October 22nd & 23rd

As someone who has been attending Mobile World Congress – and all its previous incarnations – for more years than I care to remember, I approached Apps World 2013 with a certain feeling of aloof distain. After all, the event this year was at Earls Court smaller venue – hall 2, less room than just one of the vast halls devoted to Apps at MWC this year. I also regard MWC as my annual ‘bump’ where I encounter old friends and colleagues and we talk about the good old days. I knew the chances of me bumping into anyone I knew here was pretty slim (and anyway can you recognise anyone under their hood?).

Yes, Apps developers and the App world can seem like foreign territory for long standing CTOs such as me who got dizzy spending billions of pounds on real network infrastructure that you could see and touch and stand and back and admire. An App can be knocked up and brought to market in a week. That’s why there are millions of them out there and probably why so few make any money. I’m told that the App market globally could be worth £75Bn this year, although no one is really sure how to measure the value. A lot of money for sure but compared against the £1 trillion of mobile revenues it’s still small fry.

MNOs wouldn’t get out of bed for the money that an App makes – and they don’t! And therein lies the dilemma for MNOs. Apps are happening all around them and are now encircling them and even forcing a radical rethink of the long standing business model the mobile operators have followed since their inception. They would like to follow the money but can’t.

Not too long ago people would not have known what an OS was let alone name the OS they are using and today they even know the version number of Android or IOs they are using. There are other OS of course but let’s not waste time on them today. Quite simply Apps have changed the way customers use their mobile, the way they think about their mobile, the way they select the device they want to use and even the operating system on the device.

I hadn’t spent long in the hall before I realised that no matter how vast MWC is and how many people attend it each year, the sea change is happening fast and the mobile economy is now all about Apps and what the customer wants to do on their mobile device. One could say it’s been a long time coming! Applications are all that matter to customers and their device must support the Apps they want to use and their network must allow them affordable access to the Apps they like using. The relevance of the network is moving in the wrong direction as far as operators are concerned and that must be keeping a lot of MNO CEOs awake at night. Anyone in any doubt as to this only had to turn up to this show.

Attending this event taught me that Corporate Apps are beginning to dominate the landscape now. I’m not sure that is altogether a good thing but I suppose it was inevitable. So there were no end of trendy brands telling us how cool and hip their App is – or will be. There are still a lot of barriers to overcome before corporate Apps really take off. Setting aside user adoption for a second, the purpose of a corporate App doesn’t always seem to have been thought through beyond an intern in the marketing dept. saying ‘we must have an App’. So they have one – but what’s it’s for? Is it intended to be an extension of advertising, a new channel, a customer care platform, a promotions vehicle? Should it have a fulfilment purpose? Is it essential to have a payment engine? I think the corporate world needs to do a bit more thinking about Apps before diving in. Security raises its head time and time again and is a worry for the corporates. Especially in the area of BYOD and an expectation that user Apps and Devices need to be integrated into the back-office IT systems somehow. One feels there is a disaster just waiting to happen here.

All of us who attended Apps World 2013 have seen the future. OK you could say the future has been here for a while now but it’s not until the future goes mainstream that one can say it’s properly arrived. There is a long way to go yet in industrialising Apps across the board and we are bound to see a process whereby the survival of the fittest Apps means more focus on the quality of an App and less so on the sheer number out there. Apps that simply launch web sites have no future and Apps that serve a useful purpose and that customers want to use will rise to the top.

The Mobile Academy, hosted by UCL and Mobile Monday London, moved their usual session to tag onto the show and provided two very useful insights that may have been telling us much about the future of Apps:

Bruce Lawson from Opera spoke entertainingly about HTML5. What the dickens has HTML5 got to do with Apps you may well ask! Who knows, there may well be another twist in the Apps story yet! (The organisers told me they were being deliberately controversial.)

[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/117481788″ width=”100%” height=”166″ iframe=”true” /]

Then Tim Green from Mobile Money Revolution reminded us just how tortuous the mobile payment landscape is and anyone who thinks a great App is easily monetised would probably have gone home and kicked the cat.

[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/117482333″ width=”100%” height=”166″ iframe=”true” /]

I came away thinking that although Apps will dominate the mobile economy for many years to come, picking winners and losers is not so easy and as the population grows on the Planet of the Apps, I wonder just how much money there will be to sustain the growing masses.

Credit to Six Degrees for putting on a good show – a real coup in getting Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak to come along and the line-up of speakers was impressive.