The Elephant in the Room

Usually, keynote speeches are a disappointment. But not today, Thursday 5th September. At the GSMA’s Mobile 360 Series in Brussels, the keynote speech delivered in the morning by Franco Bernabé was a scorcher. Mr Bernabé is the Chairman of the GSMA and Chairman and CEO of the Telecom Italia Group.

With Neelie Kroes herself, one of several Vice-Presidents of the European Commission, sitting barely 2 metres from him, he delivered a clear and articulate broadside to the esteemed commissioner. His message was that the balance between (i) finding the next Eurocent reduction in a retail or wholesale price-point and (ii) creating the right conditions for necessary investment in European mobile infrastructure was fundamentally flawed. And those flaws could be traced directly to the 2 news stories from earlier this week when Europe’s size on the mobile world stage declined markedly. First on Monday 2nd Sept, Vodafone cashed in its chips in Verizon and walked away from the US table; and then on Tuesday, Microsoft swallowed Nokia’s handset business. How the tables have turned! As recently as the mid-2000s, the US and possibly the rest of the world were all followers to Europe in mobile technology. But no more, as this week’s events underline.

How was Commissioner Kroes going to respond, we all wondered, for she was next up to speak. Would she bristle? Would she fight? Her opening words made it clear that even she was not sure what line to take for she said she was tempted to put her speech away and give a different one entirely. But she did not – a few short remarks, and then it was on with her prepared speech as if Mr Bernabé had said nothing. Her speech, however, included a passage on the importance of investing in 5G: We were leaders in 3G, we missed 4G, now let’s focus on 5G, she told the room.

ele“The elephant!” I thought. “She must acknowledge the elephant! It is not only clearly in the room but it has just thrown its trunk high in the air and trumpeted so loudly that it will have been heard across Europe.”

But Commissioner Kroes finished her speech, sat briefly and then slipped out quietly as if nothing had happened.

And for the rest of the day, no one else mentioned the elephant either. Many worthy speakers gave many impassioned presentations on many aspects of connected cities, or smart cities as they were also called. In all of them, there was unquestionably a role for mobile technology to play if the dream was to be realised. But the issue of the underlying conditions for inward investment being wrong…. It was never mentioned.

Never, that is, till the final keynote session at the end of the day. And that, my friends, was yet another scorcher.

What a day; an outstanding start and a blistering end. Shame about the middle – bit hard to stay awake sometimes.

So what happened in the final session?

It began tamely enough with Anne Bouverot, the Director-General of the GSMA, making a few non-controversial closing remarks. But then she was joined on the stage by Jon Fredrik Baksaas, the CEO and President of Telenor together with Christian Salbaing, the Deputy Chairman of Hutchison Whampoa Europe. One of Commissioner Kroes trusted lieutenants, Anthony Whelan was due to be there as well, but some excuse about Brussels traffic was given and a vague hope that he would arrive before the end of the session.

With the EU Commission’s seat on the panel empty, Mr Barksaas quietly and with great authority did again exactly what Mr Bernabé had done in the morning: he pointed out the elephant. His message was clear: what I took from it was that however worthy everything talked about today may be, none of it was likely to happen if the conditions for investment did not improve. The focus, he said, is too much on pricing and not enough on the conditions to create the necessary return on investment. He drew the comparison between Europe and the US, saying that if Europe’s ratio of “capital investment to sales revenue” had been 15% as was typical in the US instead of the 8% it had been, then the situation in which Europe now finds itself, having gone from leader to laggard, would be very different.

His theme was then picked up by Mr Salbaing who made the point that it was not good enough to wait for 5G and just concede on 4G. As he said, “G’s” come around about once every 10 years so the next one is not likely to be here before 2022/23. That was too long to wait. Remedial action was required now.

And then along came Mr Whelan. His taxi had taken a wrong turn he said. Personally, I was expecting nothing. He had not heard the day’s events. He had not been present at either of the crucial keynote sessions. I was ready for platitudes and generalities to see out the last 20 minutes before I had to dash off for to catch the Eurostar back to London.

How wrong can you be!

Mr Whelan didn’t just acknowledge the existence of the elephant. He stared it in the eye and commanded it to be quiet. This was no mere Brussels flunky sent out to fill the last 20 minutes of an industry talking shop. This was a serious piece of controlled aggression handled masterfully by the unassuming Mr Whelan. Without flinching, he stood toe-to-toe with both Mr Salbaing and Mr Barksaas and traded arguments.

Commissioner Kroes department was preparing a major legislative initiative that was unlikely to be popular with the mobile industry. But the policy would be balanced, reflecting the right balance between the legitimate interests of the mobile investors and the interests of the EU citizens. There was a sweet spot, he said, where unit costs go down and operators will actually be able to increase their revenues, ARPUs and profits by reducing the unit prices they charge.

As for the elephant itself – specifically, data roaming rates – Mr Whelan likened this to crack cocaine. You don’t get off it in a day, he said. But there is no doubt that you have to get off it. It is dangerous for the industry as a whole. And if you are going to have to get off it, there is no doubt that it is better to get off it yourself rather than be forced off it by someone else.

All in all, a very interesting day – one that I am very pleased I stayed to the end of or I would have missed the fiery last session.

Whatever comes out in the Green paper, it certainly looks like it is going to cause fireworks to fly. And on this topic, Mr Salbaing had the last word. Good regulation is very important he said. But worryingly, this green paper feels like it is being rushed out because next year we are due to have a new EU Parliament and a new EU Commissioner. It is in no one’s interests to be held to ransom by the date of the next EU elections in April 2014. Have the courage, he said, if the regulation is being rushed and is not properly thought through, to stand back and say: it is too important that we get this right. Do not rush it out because of the April 2014 date.